Home sales
5,040
▼ 9.0% year over year
New listings
16,500
▼ 14.4% year over year
Average price
$1,006,409
▼ 5.1% year over year
Active listings
26,131
▼ 9.3% year over year
Last month I wrote that the slowdown was coming from sellers, not buyers. Sales had barely moved while new listings fell off a cliff.
September changed that read, and it's worth saying so plainly rather than quietly moving on. Sales dropped 9% from last September. New listings fell 14.4%, almost exactly the same rate as August. Supply kept retreating at its usual pace, and this time demand retreated with it.
TRREB put it as buyers being in a holding pattern, with uncertainty about the economy, inflation and borrowing costs weighing on decisions. The numbers back that up. Here's what's underneath them.
1.What actually changed between August and September
Year over year decline in each month. Longer bar means a bigger drop against the same month last year.
August September
Look at the middle pair. Listings fell at almost exactly the same rate both months, so nothing changed on the supply side. What moved was sales, from a 2% decline to a 9% one, and the price decline roughly doubled alongside it. That's buyers stepping back, not sellers flooding in. Worth knowing because the two look identical in a headline and lead to completely different places.
2.Condos and townhomes are still where the correction lives
MLS® Home Price Index benchmark, year over year change. Benchmark price shown at right.
Individual home type All types combined, for reference
Same shape as August, slightly deeper. The condo benchmark at $527,200 is roughly $38,000 below where it sat a year ago. Detached has now caught up to the pack though, down 4.8% against 4.5% last month, so the gap between freehold and condo is no longer widening the way it was. One genuine oddity in the data: average semi-detached prices came in essentially flat year over year, down 0.2%, which is the only segment holding its ground.
3.The year flattened out after June
Monthly GTA sales. Average price shown alongside for reference.
| Month | Sales | Average price |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 3,044 | $968,468 |
| Feb | 3,833 | $1,007,347 |
| Mar | 4,992 | $1,015,058 |
| Apr | 5,916 | $1,051,878 |
| May | 6,548 | $1,069,697 |
| Jun | 6,733 | $1,059,053 |
| Jul | 5,967 | $1,003,708 |
| Aug | 5,042 | $993,604 |
| Sep | 5,040 | $1,006,409 |
September came in at 5,040 sales against August's 5,042. Essentially identical, which is unusual, because September normally picks up after the summer lull. It didn't this year. Average price actually ticked up about $13,000 month over month, so the softness is in volume rather than in what individual homes are fetching. Year to date the GTA has recorded 47,115 sales at an average of $1,025,266.
4.Most of this market still sits under $1M
Share of the 5,040 GTA sales in September, broken out by price band.
Under $600K $600K to $899K $900K to $1.24M $1.25M and up
64% of what sold in September closed under $1M, and more than one in five closed under $600K. That's barely moved from August's 65%, which tells you the pullback was spread fairly evenly across price points rather than concentrated at the top or the bottom.
Where things stand around the region
September 2026 sales and prices by region.
| Region | Sales | Average price | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|
| City of Toronto | 1,937 | $1,034,320 | $810,000 |
| Peel Region | 936 | $906,719 | $855,000 |
| York Region | 893 | $1,136,650 | $1,043,000 |
| Durham Region | 552 | $828,141 | $770,000 |
| Halton Region | 502 | $1,139,025 | $982,500 |
Here's the part that gets lost in the gloom. Homes that sold went for 98% of asking in September, up from 97% in August. Toronto East did better still at 101%. Months of inventory held steady at 4.6. Fewer people are transacting, but the ones who are aren't capitulating on price.
So what do you do with this?
If you're buying
This is the most negotiating room you've had all year, and you're competing against fewer other buyers than at any point since the spring. The 5 year fixed is still around 6.09% and the Bank of Canada held at 2.3%. The catch is that everyone waiting for certainty is waiting for the same signal, and they'll all move at once when it comes.
If you're selling
Pricing is doing almost all the work right now. Well positioned homes are still getting 98% of ask, but the average property sat 51 days before selling. If you're not in a hurry, the thinner buyer pool is a real argument for waiting. If you are, price it to the current market rather than to the spring and it will move.
If you're investing or looking at pre construction
A $527,200 condo benchmark is about $38,000 cheaper than a year ago, and that changes the pre construction comparison again. Deposit structure, occupancy fees and closing costs are where the real difference sits, which is what I walk through in the video below.